By 2050, Boston will be like Atlanta, Portland like San Antonio, and 22% of Earth … somewhere else
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When scientists talk about the impact of climate change, it’s often expressed in terms of degrees. But whether the number is 2° or 4 °, it seems rather abstract. And not that bad … after all, who wouldn’t like to have a couple of degrees on a shiveBy 2050, Boston will be like Atlanta, Portland like San Antonio, and 22% of Earth … somewhere else
When scientists talk about the impact of climate change, it’s often expressed in terms of degrees. But whether the number is 2° or 4 °, it seems rather abstract. And not that bad … after all, who wouldn’t like to have a couple of degrees on a shivery winter night? But those numbers are averages. It doesn’t mean that the temperatures slide up 2° everywhere all the time. The numbers also tend to be expressed in Centigrade so … for U.S. folks, that’s 3.6 to 7.2 degrees F. To make things easier to understand, a recent article in the journal PLOS One looked at the existing climate in cities around the world, and compared that to what they can expect by 2050—barely thirty years away. The study restricts itself to looking at a set of large cities, and focuses primarily on what they will experience in their warmest months. The authors then looked through their database to see what city in 2019 best represents what another city will be like in 2050. For example, 2050 Baltimore can expect a climate most like 2019 Atlanta. That study shows something of how uneven the heating is expected to be. Tokyo gets off easy, with a rise of almost exactly 2° (3.6°F) in its warmest month, while London jumps an astounding 5.9° (10.6°F). Even with London’s expected much hotter summers, both those cities fall in the “current climate regime.” That is, while 2050 London will have a climate more similar to Madrid than anywhere in the U.K., it at least has a climate that is similar to somewhere in the study. That’s not true for every city. Within 30 years, 22% of the major cities in the study will “disappear from this current climatic domain.” In just 30 years, one city in five will find themselves “in a climatic regime that does currently exist on the planet today.” As might be expected, that’s especially true of the tropics, where 30% of cities will experience “novel climate conditions.” Meaning simply that they will be hotter, and in some cases drier or wetter, than any city in the current study. But the tropics aren’t alone in making this trip to a whole new world. Other areas of the planet are going to see changes that are just as extreme. Including the Eastern United States. Read more